Pembina Pipeline (PPL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record 2024 full-year earnings of $1.874B, adjusted EBITDA of $4.408B, and adjusted cash flow from operations of $3.265B ($5.70/share); Q4 earnings were $572M, adjusted EBITDA $1.254B, and cash flow $922M ($1.59/share).

• Growth driven by strategic acquisitions, higher volumes in the WCSB, strong marketing performance, and project completions including Alliance/Aux Sable and NEBC MPS Expansion.

• Major strategic moves included full consolidation of Alliance and Aux Sable, positive FID on Cedar LNG, and a 50,000 bpd ethane supply agreement with Dow.

• Entered agreements for a 50% interest in Greenlight Electricity Centre and secured NGL extraction rights from Yellowhead Mainline.

Financial highlights

• 2024 revenue was $7.384B, up from $6.331B in 2023; Q4 revenue was $2.145B, up from $1.836B year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 rose 15% to $4.408B; Q4 adjusted EBITDA increased 21% to $1.254B year-over-year.

• Net income for 2024 was $1.874B, up 6% year-over-year; Q4 net income was $572M, down 18% due to prior year impairment reversal.

• Adjusted cash flow from operations for 2024 was $3.265B, up 23% year-over-year; Q4 was $922M, up 23%.

• Dividend increased by 3.4% following strong free cash flow generation.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance set at $4.2B–$4.5B, reflecting seasonality, maintenance, commodity price assumptions, and full-year impact of acquisitions.

• Free cash flow expected to remain positive, with all 2025 capital investment scenarios fully funded by operating cash flow net of dividends.

• Year-end 2025 debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio forecasted at 3.3–3.6x.

• Approximately $4B in secured projects under construction and over $4B in development.

• Internal and third-party forecasts expect mid-single-digit volume growth in the WCSB over the next 2–3 years.