Repsol (REP) CMD 2026 summary

Strategic outlook and financial guidance

• Operating cash flow is expected to grow 20% from €5.4B in 2025 to €6.5B in 2028, driven by new project start-ups and diversified exposure across Spain, Portugal, US, and other OECD markets.

• Shareholder distributions will total 30–40% of cash flow from operations, with cash dividends growing above 6% annually and a total cash dividend of €3.6B in 2026–28, supported by buybacks.

• Net CapEx for 2026–28 is set at €7.5–10B, with €1B in planned divestments, 90% allocated to Iberia and the US, and 30% to low-carbon businesses.

• Free cash flow is projected at €9B in the base case and €7.5B in a lower scenario, with ROACE targeted at 12% by 2028.

• The plan is fully financed, maintaining a strong balance sheet, BBB+/Baa1 credit rating, and normalized investment intensity post high-investment cycle.

Business segment priorities and growth drivers

• Upstream will focus on US and key international basins, targeting 580,000–600,000 boe/d by 2028, with a reserve replacement ratio around 80% (excluding Venezuela upside).

• Industrial division aims for a 40% increase in cash flow from operations by 2028, consolidating low-carbon platforms, expanding renewable fuels, and launching new hydrogen projects.

• Customer business expects to grow cash flow from operations to €1.5B by 2028, scaling multi-energy retail, targeting over 4M P&G retail and 13M digital customers, and investing €1.4–1.6B.

• Low-carbon generation will transition to self-financed growth, targeting ~9 GW of renewable capacity by 2028, with Spain largely self-funded and US net CapEx capped at €0.5–1B.

• Core geographies are Spain, Portugal, and the US, leveraging resilient energy demand and leading positions in fuels, power, and renewables.

Decarbonization and sustainability commitments

• On track to achieve net zero absolute emissions (Scope 1+2+3) by 2050, with a 15% carbon intensity reduction by 2025 and a revised 2030 target of 25% versus 2016.

• Methane emissions intensity in E&P reduced to <0.2%, with routine flaring eliminated and >1.5 MtCO₂e annual emissions reduction plan in place.

• Industrial segment to reduce Scope 1 & 2 CO₂ by 0.6 Mtpa in 2026–28, expand renewable fuels capacity to 1.6–1.8 Mt by 2030, and grow renewable H₂ capacity to 0.6–0.8 GWeq.

• LCG segment maintains >10% equity IRR hurdle, with disciplined capital allocation and asset rotation to optimize returns.

• Maintains flexibility to pace low-carbon investments according to market evolution and regulatory developments.