Republic Services (RSG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 3.5% revenue growth and nearly 7% adjusted EBITDA growth for 2025, with 90 basis points of margin expansion and adjusted EPS of $7.02.

• Full-year 2025 net income reached $2.14 billion ($6.85 per share), with adjusted net income at $2.19 billion ($7.02 per share), both increasing over 2024.

• Customer retention remained strong at 94%, and net promoter score improved throughout 2025.

• Fourth quarter organic revenue growth was driven by solid pricing, but organic volume declined, especially in construction and manufacturing end markets.

• $1.1 billion invested in acquisitions and $1.6 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted free cash flow reached $2.43 billion, with a 200 basis point increase in conversion to 45.8%.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $5.31 billion, with a margin of 32.0%, up 90 basis points year-over-year.

• Core price on total revenue was 5.8% in Q4; average yield on total revenue was 3.7%.

• Recycling commodity prices declined to $112/ton in Q4 from $153/ton prior year; full-year average was $135/ton.

• Cash flow from operations was $4.30 billion; adjusted free cash flow was $2.43 billion, up 11.5%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 revenue expected at $17.05–$17.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA at $5.475–$5.525 billion, adjusted EPS at $7.20–$7.28, and adjusted free cash flow at $2.52–$2.56 billion.

• Guidance includes $1 billion in acquisitions, with $400 million already closed and contributing 70 basis points to 2026 growth.

• Underlying business expected to deliver 60–70 basis points of margin expansion, offset by commodity prices, acquisitions, and lower landfill volumes.

• Organic volume expected to decrease total revenue by ~1% in 2026, with residential volumes remaining negative.

• Quarterly dividend of $0.625 per share declared for April 2026.