Safaricom (SCOM) H2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong FY26 results with double-digit growth in Kenya and reduced losses in Ethiopia, surpassing guidance and achieving major milestones in customer growth and sustainability.

• Kenya remains the group's powerhouse, with robust customer growth and balanced performance across segments.

• Ethiopia contributed significantly to group revenue growth, halving losses and approaching EBITDA breakeven in FY27.

• Regulatory clarity achieved with a 25-year license renewal in Kenya and progress on infrastructure sharing in Ethiopia.

• Board recommended a record full-year dividend of KES 2 per share.

Financial highlights

• Group service revenue grew 11.1% YoY to KShs 414.1Bn; EBITDA up 35.4% to KShs 220.5Bn; net income (excl. minority) up 67.3% to KShs 99.7Bn.

• Kenya: M-PESA revenue up 13.4% YoY to KShs 182.7Bn, now 45.6% of service revenue; mobile data up 14.4% to KShs 83.4Bn; fixed revenue up 12.9% to KShs 20.2Bn.

• Ethiopia: Service revenue KShs 14.1Bn (+58.3% YoY), active customers reached 13.6 million; EBITDA losses reduced by over 40%.

• Operating free cash flow up nearly 40% due to lower CapEx and stronger earnings; group CapEx declined 18.4% YoY to KShs 74.5Bn.

• Dividend payout maintained at 80% of net income (excl. IAS 29), with total dividends paid in FY26 reaching KShs 80.13Bn.

Outlook and guidance

• Confirms EBITDA breakeven for Ethiopia in FY27, with positive trajectory supported by price revisions and customer growth.

• FY27 EBIT guidance: Kenya KShs 195-199Bn, Ethiopia (KShs 15)-(12)Bn, Group KShs 180-187Bn.

• FY27 capex guidance: Kenya KShs 58-61Bn, Ethiopia KShs 6-9Bn, Group KShs 64-70Bn.

• CapEx to remain lower as Ethiopia exits peak investment phase; focus on asset utilization and margin protection.

• Monitoring macro risks, especially fiscal pressures, inflation, and geopolitical risks linked to Middle East conflict.