SCA (SCA) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 delivered solid results despite a challenging market, with high self-sufficiency and effective cost mitigation, though EBITDA fell 18% year-over-year due to maintenance stops, lower pulp prices, and negative currency effects.

• Net sales for Q3 2025 declined 5% year-over-year to SEK 4,993m, mainly due to negative currency effects and lower prices, partially offset by higher delivery volumes.

• For Jan–Sep 2025, net sales rose 3% year-over-year to SEK 15,534m, driven by higher prices and volumes, but EBITDA for the period was down 3% due to higher raw material costs and currency headwinds.

• Focus remains on ramping up major investment projects, with no new large projects planned.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 EBITDA was SEK 1,644m (margin 32.9%), down 18% year-over-year; EBIT was SEK 1,112m (margin 22.3%).

• Net profit for Q3 2025 was SEK 832m, or SEK 1.19 per share; effective tax rate just below 20%.

• Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 increased to SEK 1,111m; for Jan–Sep 2025, it was SEK 2,549m.

• Net debt at quarter-end was SEK 11,734m; net debt/EBITDA at 1.7x; net debt/equity at 11.2%.

• EBITDA margin for Jan–Sep 2025 was 34.3% (down from 36.4%).

Outlook and guidance

• Market conditions remain uncertain due to weak economic environment, trade barriers, and currency volatility.

• Pulp wood prices expected to remain flat in Q4, with a slow decline into Q1 2026; saw log costs to continue rising into Q4 and peak in Q1 2026.

• CapEx for 2025 guided at SEK 2.8 billion, with strategic CapEx to decrease in 2026.

• Expectation of increased cash flow capacity as ramp-up projects complete; CapEx to come down next year.

• Market for pulp and containerboard expected to move sideways in Q4, with potential for upward trend in pulp and continued price pressure in solid wood products.