Semtech (SMTC) UBS’s 2025 Global Technology and AI Conference summary

Financial performance and growth outlook

• Achieved sequential revenue growth in Q3, with 8% growth in the data center segment and projected 10% growth in Q4.

• Hyperscaler customer ACC ramp scheduled to begin in mid-2026, with initial ramp expected in the April quarter.

• 800G optical transceiver volumes projected to reach 50 million units in 2026, up from 30 million in 2025.

• LPO transition increases SAM by 250% over DSP-based transceivers, with ACC as a net revenue adder.

• LoRa business posted over $40 million in Q3, growing at 15%-20% CAGR, with a base of $30-$40 million per quarter.

Data center and connectivity solutions

• ACC adoption driven by power and latency advantages, with clear use cases for different cable lengths.

• ACC ramp by a leading hyperscaler expected to catalyze broader industry adoption.

• Linear equalizer ICs can be integrated on boards to extend high-speed link reach, with multiple use cases in evaluation.

• LPO offers plug-and-play benefits, lower power, and cost compared to DSP-based solutions, with growing industry acceptance.

• LPO expected to reach 25%-30% mix of 800G pluggable transceivers in 2-3 years; ACC seen as a larger opportunity.

Product and technology roadmap

• 800G LPO TIA has industry-leading share; driver adoption is growing, with 1.6T LPO driver sampling before year-end.

• 1.6T LPO faces signal integrity challenges, but industry is working toward solutions.

• Focused R&D investment in data center and transceiver content to address capability gaps and support growth.