SIG Group (SIGN) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 revenue grew 3.2% at constant currency and constant resin, with growth expected to accelerate in H2 due to new filler installations and operational efficiencies.

• Business model resilience supported by diversified channels, strong customer base, and global footprint; carton segment performed well except for subdued China, while bag-in-box saw growth in North America.

• Moody's upgraded the company to investment grade, aligning with S&P's rating; successful EUR 625 million bond placement extended debt maturity profile.

• Net income improved to €15.6 million from a loss of €7.1 million in Q1 2024, aided by the absence of prior year non-recurring costs.

• Full-year guidance for revenue growth and margin confirmed, with expectations for stronger H2 performance.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 revenue reached €746 million, up 3.8% at constant currency and 3.4% reported year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose to €166 million (up from €155 million), with margin increasing to 22.3% from 21.5% year-over-year.

• Adjusted net income increased to €44 million from €40 million year-over-year.

• Free cash flow improved to €(90) million from €(101) million, reflecting typical seasonality.

• Net CapEx, including leases, was €59 million (7.9% of revenue), down €19 million year-over-year due to project completions.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year guidance maintained: revenue growth at constant currency and resin expected between 3%-5%.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin forecasted at 24.5%-25.5%, with higher margins and free cash flow in H2 due to seasonality.

• Net capital expenditure including leases projected at 7-9% of revenue.

• Dividend payout ratio targeted at 50-60% of adjusted net income.

• Tariff impacts expected to be mid to high single million euro for 2025; manageable due to regional supply chain.