Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) Guggenheim Securities Emerging Outlook: Biotech Summit 2026 summary

Commercial performance and market trends

• Achieved approximately 10% of total addressable market within first 9–12 months, with expectations to maintain this trend and reach another 10% in the coming year.

• Quarter-to-quarter variability is expected, but long-term growth is guided by provider cadence and commercial team assessments.

• Discontinuation rates are stabilizing at 15–20%, with most adverse event-related discontinuations occurring early in treatment.

• Active patient pool is growing, driven by both paid and free programs, with revenue growth tied to patient adherence and gross-to-net adjustments.

• Seasonality impacts revenue in Q1 due to copay resets and insurance changes, leading to higher gross-to-net discounts.

Prescriber and patient dynamics

• Over 600 prescribers have written scripts, surpassing initial expectations and indicating broadening adoption.

• Largest prescribers account for the majority of patients, but new prescribers are increasingly contributing to growth.

• Physician education efforts are ongoing, especially for those with limited experience, improving management of adverse events.

• Some patients who discontinued therapy have returned, motivated by positive outcomes and peer experiences.

• Titration practices align with label recommendations, with most patients reaching target dose unless comorbidities are present.

Product safety, efficacy, and real-world experience

• Adverse events in real-world use mirror those seen in clinical trials, predominantly non-serious and consistent with the product label.

• Discontinuation for adverse events is mainly early in therapy; efficacy can be observed even at lower doses.

• Diuretic use remains limited to a minority of patients, typically those with more comorbidities.

• Titration to prescribed dose is achieved by the majority, with exceptions for patients with significant comorbidities.