Swedbank (SWED) Pre-close call summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2026 pre-close call focused on macro trends, P&L, capital, and public data, with Q&A limited to disclosed information.

• One extra day in the quarter positively impacted NII and AUM, with SEK 60 million/day for NII and SEK 20 million/day for AUM.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Swedish krona appreciated vs. USD and EUR by end of March, but depreciated on average quarter-to-date.

• Riksbank policy rate unchanged at 1.75%; ECB raised to 2.25% on June 11.

• Three-month STIBOR up 5bps, six-month EURIBOR up 30bps quarter-to-date.

• Mortgage list prices in Sweden lowered by 5-15bps on May 29; actual mortgage prices increased by 8bps on three-month fixings in first two months.

• Swedish deposit rates unchanged; 0% paid on transaction and e-savings accounts.

• Swedbank's Swedish mortgage volumes up SEK 2.8bn in April (23.2% market share); corporate lending up SEK 6.5bn (29% share).

• Retail deposits in Sweden up SEK 7.5bn (20% share); corporate deposits down SEK 3.5bn.

• Baltic lending up 13.9% YoY; deposits up 12.7% YoY in April.

• Private deposits in Baltics grew 13.5%, corporate deposits 11.6%.

• Swedish stock market up 1.8%, US up 5.9%, Europe up 1.2% vs. Q1; mutual fund net inflows SEK 47bn in April-May.

• Swedbank Robur market share at 21.8% end of May.

• Card activity seasonally higher in Q2.

Profitability and margins

• Commission expenses remain elevated due to investments in Swedish payment system transformation.

• Seasonal increase in costs in Q2, mainly from annual salary costs.

• 2026 cost guidance at SEK 27.5bn, excluding SEK 1.3bn extraordinary cost; SEK 800m provisions to be booked in Q2.

• Bank tax: SEK 100m annual interest cost booked in Q2; EUR 70m per quarter accrued for Latvian bank tax.

• Asset quality: post-model adjustment at SEK 268m by end of Q1.