Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THYAO) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Navigated a challenging environment with geopolitical conflicts, macroeconomic uncertainties, delayed aircraft deliveries, and rising operational costs, leveraging a flexible global network and agile staff.

• Total revenues for 3Q'24 rose 4.9% year-over-year to $6.63bn, with 9M'24 revenues up 7.8% to $17.06bn.

• Net income for 3Q'24 declined 19.6% year-over-year to $1.54bn, and 9M'24 net income fell 2.7% to $2.71bn.

• Cargo revenues surged 47.4% in 3Q'24, driven by strong Far East demand.

• Miles&Smiles loyalty program surpassed 20 million members; new business class product and digital distribution platform launched.

Financial highlights

• Passenger capacity increased by 5.4% year over year, driven by international operations.

• Carried 24.5 million passengers with an 85% load factor; total revenues rose 5% annually to $6.6 billion, the highest quarterly revenue.

• Cargo revenues surged by nearly 50%, with yields up 26% year over year.

• EBITDA for 9M'24 was $4,987 million; EBITDAR margin for 3Q'24 was 35.2%, down 5 pts year-over-year.

• Net income margin for 3Q'24 was 23.3%, down 7.1 pts year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Bookings for Q4 remain strong despite geopolitical tensions; expect 5%-8% annual passenger capacity growth in 2025, down from 8% in 2024.

• 2024 revenue expected to grow 8%-9% over 2023; EBITDAR margin guidance maintained at 24%-27%.

• 2025 EBITDAR margin expected between 23%-25%; ex-fuel cost guidance revised to a 10% year-over-year increase.

• Gross CAPEX for 2024 projected at $4-$4.5 billion, rising to $5.5 billion in 2025 if delivery schedules hold.

• Signed agreements for 413 aircraft deliveries between 2024 and 2045, with a list price value of $49,538 million.