Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri (TUPRS) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved highest capacity utilization since Q3 2019 at 101.4% in Q3 2024, driven by RUP maintenance and strong domestic gasoline demand.

• All-time high domestic gasoline sales recorded, with domestic sales share nearly doubling since 2018.

• Maintained strong cash position of $3 billion, supported by solid EBITDA and efficient working capital management.

• Paid TRY 43 billion in dividends in 2024, meeting the 80% payout target; repaid $700 million Eurobond in October.

• Fire at Izmit Refinery was swiftly contained with no material operational or financial impact.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 revenue was TRY 196.2 billion, down 33% year-over-year; gross profit was TRY 18.9 billion; net income was TRY 7.7 billion; EBITDA stood at TRY 15.1 billion, with TRY 2.2 billion positive inventory effect.

• Net cash at quarter-end was TRY 58 billion, with cash and equivalents at TRY 103 billion and financial liabilities at TRY 45 billion.

• Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to negative 0.8, reflecting ongoing deleveraging and a net cash position.

• Working capital improved to -17.7 billion TL by Q3 2024.

• Earnings per share for the nine months was TRY 7.04, compared to TRY 12.15 in the prior year period.

Outlook and guidance

• Crack margin expectation for 2024 remains at $12 per barrel; nine-month average was $11.7 per barrel.

• Production and sales guidance unchanged: ~26 million tons production and ~30 million tons sales for 2024.

• Capacity utilization expected in the 85%-90% range; CapEx target for 2024 is $400 million.

• No major changes anticipated in capacity utilization post-maintenance; annual targets to be updated at the start of next year.

• Management continues to focus on maintaining a strong capital structure and optimizing dividend distributions.