Taylor Wimpey (TW) Trading update summary

Trading performance and market conditions

• Year-to-date trading has been steady, with net private sales rate at 0.74 per outlet per week, slightly down from 0.77 last year and a cancellation rate of 14%.

• Excluding bulk sales, the net private sales rate is 0.72, and the order book stands at £2.2bn (7,700 homes), both slightly lower year-on-year.

• Pricing has softened, especially in the south of England and London, with overall order book pricing about 1% lower year-on-year.

• Customer engagement and site visits remain consistent, supported by increased sales and marketing spend, but buyers are more deal- and incentive-focused.

• Inventory levels are high, and customers are cautious, leading to a gradual softening in sales patterns post-Easter.

Cost pressures and inflation

• Build cost inflation for 2026 is now expected to be in the low- to mid-single-digit range, higher than previously guided, mainly due to rising energy and fuel costs.

• Numerous supplier requests for price increases and surcharges have been received, with proposals ranging from low single digits to high teens.

• The company is resisting surcharges where possible and leveraging supplier relationships to mitigate increases.

• No significant labor cost inflation has been observed; cost pressures are mainly material-driven.

• Continued focus on operational levers, sales performance, and cost mitigation.

Guidance and outlook

• No revised full-year guidance is being set due to increased uncertainty from macroeconomic factors and the Middle East conflict.

• H1 UK volumes are expected to be slightly ahead of previous guidance, but pricing and cost pressures will result in H1 profitability being slightly below prior expectations.

• The range of potential outcomes for 2026 has widened, and further updates will be provided at the interim results.

• Margin pressure is estimated at 150-200 basis points due to weaker pricing and higher build cost inflation.

• Expectation to open more outlets in 2026 than in 2025, with average outlets increasing year-over-year.