TD Bank (TD) 2026 RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference summary

Loan growth and business performance

• Canadian mortgage volumes grew over 5% year-over-year, with double-digit growth in proprietary channel originations, reflecting a successful specialization and referral strategy.

• Credit card volume in Canada rose 7% year-over-year, with active accounts at record levels and growing 5%, indicating strong future growth potential.

• Canadian business loans increased 6% year-over-year despite macro uncertainty.

• U.S. core loan growth (excluding runoff portfolios) was 2% year-over-year, with proprietary bank card portfolio up 15%.

• Commercial middle market business in the U.S. is a focus area, leveraging synergies with TD Cowen.

Margins, deposits, and cost management

• Loan spreads have improved due to disciplined ROE thresholds and strategic focus, with additional fee income from TD Cowen partnerships.

• Fewer expected U.S. rate cuts are seen as a tailwind for U.S. margins.

• Term deposits are consistently declining, shifting into core deposits, which is favorable for margins.

• Cost reduction targets of CAD 2–2.5 billion are underway, with significant savings from wholesale and U.S. banking, store closures, procurement, and AI automation.

• Expense growth is moderating, with Q1 showing the lowest increase in six quarters at 7%, expected to decline further as strategies are implemented.

Credit quality and capital management

• Private credit exposure is low (around 1%) and diversified.

• PCL ratio guidance for 2026 is 40–50 basis points, down from last year, with a 99 basis point coverage ratio including over CAD 500 million for tariff and trade policy risk.

• Consumer credit deterioration is expected, especially in credit cards and auto, but aligns with internal models and is not a concern.

• Strong capital position supports a robust buyback program, with a goal to reach a 13% CET1 ratio by the second half of 2027.

• Excess capital will be returned to shareholders through buybacks if not otherwise deployed.