Tidewater Renewables (LCFS) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Fourth quarter 2025 saw significant operational and regulatory developments, including new government incentives and strategic agreements supporting renewable fuel production.

• Reported a net loss of $13.8 million in Q4 2025, compared to a net loss of $3.4 million in Q4 2024, mainly due to lower throughput and sales volume, and reduced joint venture contributions, partially offset by favorable derivative contracts and lower financing costs.

• For the full year 2025, net income was $3.5 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $357.9 million in 2024, primarily due to the absence of a large asset sale loss recognized in 2024, lower financing costs, and favorable derivative contract performance.

• Asset sales and integration of the Western Pipeline system advanced, with ongoing efforts to unlock further liquidity and operational synergies.

• Market conditions for refined products improved, with crack spreads widening due to geopolitical events.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue was $54.7 million, down from $76.4 million in Q4 2024; full year 2025 revenue was $248.0 million, down from $426.5 million in 2024.

• Tidewater Renewables reported a net loss of CAD 13.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of CAD -3.8 million for Q4 2025, both down year-over-year due to extended turnaround and equipment repairs.

• Adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.8 million in Q4 2025 (down 163% year-over-year) and $25.8 million for 2025 (down 65% from 2024).

• Distributable cash flow for 2025 was negative $16.5 million, compared to $29.8 million in 2024.

• Consolidated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is CAD 150–170 million, a 400% increase over 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 consolidated capital expenditures expected at CAD 20–25 million, with most cash flow directed to debt reduction.

• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $80–90 million, driven by optimized utilization at the HDRD Complex and robust cash flow generation targeted for debt reduction.

• Projected renewable diesel production of 150–170 million litres annually, with anticipated BPI incentives of $24–27.2 million per year in 2026 and 2027.

• Approximately 50% of 2026 renewable diesel sales and feedstock purchases hedged to lock in gross margin and reduce commodity price volatility.

• No EBITDA from Ram River restart included in 2026 guidance.