TRATON (8TRA) Pre-Close Call Presentation summary

Market situation and recent trading

• European truck market projected to decline 7.5–12.5% in 2025, with YTD Nov down 9%.

• North America expected to contract 10–15% in 2025, with YTD Nov Class 6-8 down 15%.

• South America shows mixed trends: Brazil faces political and economic headwinds, while Argentina and Chile see increased sales.

• Truck demand remains at replacement levels, with no signs of structural growth.

• Order intake was strong in October but weakened in November, with a significant uptick in December.

Recent brand and financial services developments

• Scania targets peak Q4 sales and double-digit adjusted RoS for Q4 and FY25, with cost containment ongoing.

• MAN expects peak deliveries and revenues in Q4, aiming for 6% adjusted RoS for FY25.

• International faces negative Q4 margin due to S-232 costs and tariffs, but aims for FY25 break-even.

• VWTB targets double-digit margin in Q4, but faces reduced capacity and higher bad debt provisions in Brazil.

• Financial services expansion continues, but higher bad debt in Brazil leads to a substantial Q4 operating result decline.

Group perspective and outlook

• FY25 outlook confirms lower end of guidance for adjusted RoS and net cash flow due to higher S-232 costs.

• Achieving over 6% Group adjusted RoS or €1 billion NCF in Operations is challenging.

• No reduction in industrial net debt expected in 2025; cost optimization to continue in 2026.

• Commitment to reducing industrial net debt to zero by decade's end remains.

• Tariff uncertainty and subdued market conditions expected to challenge 2026 RoS and debt reduction goals.