UniCredit (UCG) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record net profit and return on tangible equity in Q2 and H1 2025, surpassing expectations and marking the best half-year ever, driven by core revenue growth, cost discipline, and capital efficiency.

• All regions delivered profitable growth, offsetting macro headwinds, with one-offs further boosting performance.

• Upgraded 2025 and 2027 guidance, reflecting strong execution and new growth levers from internalization, integration, and equity consolidation.

• Decision to withdraw BPM offer due to ongoing regulatory uncertainty, shifting focus to organic growth and value creation.

• Transformation strategy continues, focusing on revenue acceleration and laying groundwork for future growth via internalization and strategic partnerships.

Financial highlights

• 1H25 net profit reached €6.1bn (+8.1% 1H/1H), or €5.7bn excluding one-offs; 2Q25 net profit €3.3bn (+7.7% Y/Y).

• ROTE at 23.1% for 1H25 (21.3% ex. one-offs); EPS up 26%, DPS up 31% 1H/1H.

• Net revenue for 1H25 was €12.9bn (+2.2% 1H/1H ex. one-offs); cost/income ratio improved to 35.5% (ex. one-offs).

• CET1 ratio pro-forma at 16.2%; cost of risk at 9bps for 1H25.

• Fee income up 3.6% in H1; tangible book value per share up 19% YoY.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 net profit guidance raised to ~€10.5bn; net revenue above €23.5bn; ROTE c.20%.

• Distribution guidance upgraded to at least €9.5bn for 2025; dividend at least €4.75bn.

• 2027 ambition: at least €11bn net profit, >20% ROTE, cumulative distribution of at least €30bn (2025-2027).

• NII expected to decline mid-single digit YoY; fees to grow mid-single digit.

• Cost guidance improved to below €9.6bn for 2025; cost of risk guidance at ~15bps.