Unite Group (UTG) Q4 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reservations for the next academic year are at 64%, below last year's 67%, but on track for 93%-96% occupancy and 2%-3% rental growth as previously guided.

• Share buyback program of up to £100 million is being launched, funded by deferred development activity.

• Acquisition of Empiric Student Property conditionally cleared, with completion expected in late January 2026.

• Universities are taking a cautious approach to nominations due to financial pressures, delaying renewals and take-up of beds.

• Focus remains on operational excellence, cost efficiency, and capital allocation to drive medium-term earnings growth from 2027.

Financial highlights

• USAF portfolio saw a 0.6%-0.7% decline in Q4 valuation, up 0.7%-0.8% year-over-year, with a four basis points yield increase.

• LSAV portfolio declined 1.3%-1.4% in Q4, up 0.5%-0.6% year-over-year, with 16-18 basis points of yield compression.

• USAF portfolio valued at £2,844m (5.3% yield), LSAV at £2,083m (4.7% yield) as of 31 December 2025.

• Rental growth in multi-year university agreements is supporting 3%-4% increases.

• FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance reiterated at 47.5-48.25p, including c.1p non-recurring fee income from Newcastle JV.

Outlook and guidance

• Guidance for 2026 is reiterated, with detailed earnings guidance to be provided in February, including the impact of Empiric.

• Targeting £300 million-£400 million of asset disposals in 2026, with net debt expected to remain broadly stable.

• Medium-term outlook targets a return to earnings growth from 2027.

• Anticipates continued demand for student accommodation, supported by a 4% increase in the UK 18-year-old population.

• Supply in the broader market expected to remain stable in 2026, with reductions likely from 2027.