Upstart (UPST) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 saw dramatic sequential and year-over-year growth across all product categories, with revenue up 56% YoY to $219M and originations up 68% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA reached $38.8M, the highest since Q1 2022, and the company nearly returned to GAAP profitability.

• Full-year 2024 revenue grew 24% to $637M, with 697,092 loans originated totaling $5.9B, and over 3 million customers served.

• Model innovations, including the launch of Model 19 with PTM and Model 18, drove improvements in risk separation, conversion rates, and loan origination dollars.

• New product categories—auto, HELOC, and small-dollar relief—grew rapidly, with small-dollar loans up 115% quarter-on-quarter and auto lending originations up 224% YoY.

• Funding supply increased, with $1.3B in upsized commitments and a $150M personal loan warehouse facility closed in Q4.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 total revenue was $219M, up 56% YoY and 35% QoQ; fee revenue was $199M, up 30% YoY; net interest income turned positive at nearly $20M.

• Q4 GAAP net loss was $2.8M, with Adjusted EBITDA at $38.8M (18% margin) and Adjusted EPS at $0.26.

• Full-year 2024 net revenue was $637M, up 24% from 2023, with a 60% contribution margin and $10.6M positive adjusted EBITDA.

• Cash and equivalents rose to $976.3M at year-end, up from $467.8M prior year; loans on balance sheet ended at $806M.

• Transaction volume in Q4: 246,000 loans ($2.1B), up from 129,664 loans ($1.25B) in Q4'23.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2025 guidance: total revenue ~$200M, contribution margin ~57%, adjusted EBITDA ~$27M, adjusted net income ~$16M, and net income of approximately -$20M.

• Full-year 2025 guidance: total revenue ~$1B, fee revenue ~$920M, net interest income ~$80M, adjusted EBITDA margin ~18%, and at least break-even GAAP net income.

• Assumes a stable macro environment, no rate cuts, continued model improvements, and stable contribution margins.