Verbio (VBK) Q3 24/25 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Biodiesel remains the main earnings driver, with European production up but Canadian output reduced due to regulatory changes in the USA; bioethanol and RNG set new production records, supported by efficiency gains and de-bottlenecking.

• EBITDA declined sharply year-over-year, mainly due to a weak first quarter, lower GHG premiums, and absence of prior-year non-recurring gains.

• Financial stability remains high, with a strong equity ratio and manageable net debt.

• Revenue for the first nine months of FY 2024/2025 declined 13% year-over-year to EUR 1,146.5 million, mainly due to lower biodiesel sales and prior year trading contract corrections.

• Operational flexibility and integrated biorefining platform enabled strategic resource reallocation and focus on innovation and high-growth segments.

Financial highlights

• EBITDA for the first nine months declined to EUR 22.4 million from EUR 82.1 million year-over-year, mainly due to a weak Q1 and lower GHG premiums.

• Net debt at March 31, 2025, increased to EUR 154.1 million from EUR 32.9 million at June 30, 2024, with capital expenditure totaling EUR 96.3 million for the first nine months.

• Q3 2024/2025 EBITDA improved year-over-year to EUR 8.2 million from EUR 7.3 million, driven by biodiesel and trading activities.

• Revenue in the bioethanol and biomethane segment fell to EUR 181.5 million in Q3 from EUR 188.1 million year-over-year, despite record production volumes.

• Cash and cash equivalents at March 31, 2025, were EUR 72.7 million, down from EUR 123.2 million at June 30, 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• EBITDA for FY 2024/2025 is now expected in the mid-double-digit million EUR range, likely at the lower end, revised down from the original EUR 120–160 million guidance.

• Net financial debt at year-end is forecast not to exceed EUR 190 million.

• Free cash flow is targeted to be break-even or positive in Q4.

• Margin headwinds in EU and US are seen as temporary, with normalization anticipated and margin improvement expected as ethanol markets open internationally.

• Strategic focus on value-generating projects and cost optimization to enhance competitiveness.