Vista Energy (VISTAA) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic vision and growth targets

• Production is set to increase from 114,000 BOE/day in 2025 to 180,000 by 2028, with a 2030 vision of over 200,000 BOE/day, 33% above previous forecasts and representing a 3x increase since 2021.

• Adjusted EBITDA is projected to reach $2.8B by 2028, with a 21% CAGR and average margin of ~65%.

• Cumulative free cash flow of $1.5B is expected between 2026-2028, rising to $1.5B per year by 2030, providing flexibility for shareholder returns and selective M&A.

• Export-driven model will see export revenues double to $3.2B by 2028, with oil exports comprising up to 75% of total volumes.

• Growth is fully self-funded, with all required drilling, completion, and export capacity secured, and aligned with global energy trends.

Operational excellence and innovation

• Well inventory increased to over 1,300 ready-to-drill wells, supporting at least 10 years of development, with a total inventory of 1,653 wells.

• Drilling and completion costs reduced from $14.2M per well in 2024 to $12.3M, targeting $11M by 2028 through technology and process optimization.

• Productivity of new wells consistently outperforms Vaca Muerta and Permian averages, with 24-72% higher output, and successful pilots unlocked 180 new wells.

• Real-time AI-driven completion optimization and bulk wet sand logistics have delivered significant cost savings and industry-leading well productivity.

• Plan to tie in 80-90 wells per year from 2026-2028, requiring $1.5-$1.6B CAPEX annually.

Financial discipline and shareholder returns

• ROSI and ROACE expected to remain above 20%, among the highest in the E&P sector.

• Net leverage ratio to decline from 1.5x to below 1x by 2028, with gross debt stable, average maturity of 4.5 years, and average cost of debt at 6.7%.

• Free cash flow to equity ranges from $13-$19/BOE at Brent $60-$70, with break-even Brent price for free cash flow neutrality dropping to $45 by 2028.

• Capital allocation prioritizes share buybacks and dividends, with flexibility for synergetic M&A in Vaca Muerta.

• Business model is resilient to oil price volatility, with robust free cash flow generation even in lower price scenarios.