Volvo Car (VOLCAR) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Macroeconomic environment remains fragile, with subdued consumer confidence in key markets and uneven recovery, especially in China.

• Global premium automotive segment expected to contract by 5% in 2025, with sharper declines in China (down 10%) and Europe (down 4.9%).

• Retail sales for October and November showed a 6% volume decline so far in Q4, with October down 2% and November down 10%.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Retail sales declined 6% quarter-to-date in Q4, with October down 2% and November down 10%.

• Revenue from contract manufacturing increased from SEK 2 billion in Q1 to SEK 3.2 billion in Q3 2025.

• Higher discounts and a stronger SEK are negatively impacting revenue.

• Lower retail deliveries are translating to lower wholesales in the second half of the year.

• BEV order trends are positive year-over-year, despite recent sales volatility.

Profitability and margins

• Gross margin negatively affected by lower volumes, higher discounts, and US tariffs.

• EBIT margin pressured by increased depreciation/amortization from new product launches and negative volume/discount trends.

• Revenue from CO2 credit sales expected to contribute in Q4.

• US tariffs impacted Q3 with a 27.5% rate in July and 15% in August/September; Q4 will see a 15% rate throughout.