Waste Connections (WCN) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2024, with full-year revenue of $8.92 billion, up 11.2% year-over-year, and record $750 million in annualized revenue from acquisitions.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 100 basis points to 32.5%, driven by strong pricing and acquisition contributions.

• Employee turnover reached multi-year lows, down over 1,000 basis points from 2022, supporting margin expansion.

• Integration of acquisitions and focus on human capital led to improved service quality, pricing, and operational execution.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 revenue was $2.26 billion, up 11% year-over-year; full-year revenue reached $8.92 billion, up 11.2%.

• Q4 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $732 million (32.4% margin), up 11.6% year-over-year; full-year adjusted EBITDA was $2.902 billion, up from $2.523 billion in 2023.

• Adjusted free cash flow for 2024 was $1.218 billion, converting over 50% of adjusted EBITDA.

• Q4 2024 net loss of $196.0 million due to $601.6 million in impairments, compared to net income of $126.8 million in Q4 2023.

• Capital expenditures totaled $1.056 billion, including $60 million for RNG projects.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue expected between $9.45-$9.6 billion; adjusted EBITDA projected at $3.12-$3.2 billion (33%-33.3% margin).

• 2025 net income projected at $1.186–$1.224 billion; adjusted free cash flow expected at $1.3-$1.35 billion, or over $1.55 billion on a normalized basis.

• CapEx for 2025 estimated at $1.2-$1.225 billion, including $100-$150 million for RNG projects.

• Q1 2025 revenue guidance is $2.2-$2.225 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $700-$710 million (31.8%-31.9% margin).

• Strong acquisition pipeline and improving commodity-driven revenues position for high-end or above guidance.