AGL Energy (AGL) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying profit after tax surged 189% to AUD 812 million, driven by higher wholesale electricity prices, improved fleet availability, and strong customer growth.

• Accelerated decarbonisation strategy, nearly doubling the development pipeline to 6.2 GW, with acquisitions of Firm Power and Terrain Solar expanding battery and renewable options.

• Customer base grew by 211,000 to 4.5 million services, with notable increases in energy, telecommunications, and Netflix services, and maintained a positive Net Promoter Score.

• Advanced Retail Transformation Program, including a strategic partnership and 20% equity investment in Kaluza, targeting AUD 70–90 million annual pre-tax savings from FY29.

• Significant progress in ESG milestones, including gender equality targets and procurement from First Nations-owned businesses.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA rose 63% to $2,216 million; underlying NPAT up 189% to $812 million.

• Operating free cash flow increased 169% to $1,355 million; statutory NPAT was $711 million.

• Total FY24 dividend was 61 cents per share, up 97% year-over-year, with a 50% payout ratio.

• Net debt reduced by $942 million to $1.8 billion, with liquidity position at $1.7 billion.

• Return on equity increased by 10 percentage points to 14.9%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance: $1,870–$2,170 million; underlying NPAT: $530–$730 million.

• Earnings expected to decrease in FY25 due to lower wholesale prices, margin compression, and increased depreciation/amortisation.

• Operating costs projected to remain flat, with productivity gains offsetting growth and inflation.

• Dividend policy remains at 50%-75% of underlying NPAT, with partially franked dividends from FY25 interim dividend.

• Sustaining capital spend on thermal assets to remain in the AUD 400–500 million range annually.