AIB Group (A5G) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 performance was ahead of plan, with strong business momentum and strategic delivery.

• New lending increased 14% year-over-year to €3.2bn, with 38% classified as green lending.

• Market share in Irish mortgages at 34% YTD; over 500 new customers attracted daily.

• Robust funding and capital positions maintained.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income €0.95bn, down 8% year-over-year due to lower rates; NIM at 2.86%.

• Net fees and commissions rose 7% year-over-year; other income down 10% due to lower equity investment gains.

• Operating costs up 3% in line with guidance; cost-to-income ratio at 43%.

• CET1 ratio at end-March was 16.8%, up from 15.1% at Dec 2024.

• Customer deposits stable at €109.9bn.

Outlook and guidance

• All 2025 guidance reiterated, including loan growth, NII > €3.6bn, other income ~€750m, costs +3%, and COR 20-30bps.

• 2026 NII guidance is comfortable at consensus levels if ECB rates remain at 1.75%; each 25bps rate reduction impacts NII by €90 million.

• ROTE targets for 2025 expected to be meaningfully exceeded, with 2026 targets comfortably met.

• 2026 targets: ROTE 15%, CET1 >14%, CIR <50%, absolute cost <€2bn.