AIB Group (A5G) Q3 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong Q3 performance with resilient lending book, supported by a robust Irish economy and a growing customer base of 3.4 million.

• Upgraded net interest income (NII) guidance to over €3.7 billion for 2025, reflecting robust lending and deposit growth.

• Strategic focus on customer first, greening the business, and operational efficiency continues.

• Positive momentum expected to continue into 2026, supported by a strong pipeline and favorable domestic economic conditions.

Financial highlights

• New lending grew 5% year-over-year to €10.5bn by September, with notable strength in personal lending, capital markets, and UK businesses.

• Net interest income for nine months to September was €2.8bn, with Q3 NII at €0.93bn; NIM YTD was 2.75%.

• Operating costs rose 4% year-over-year, mainly from investment and inflation; cost-income ratio at 44%.

• Exceptional gain of €150m expected for 2025, mainly from the sale of merchant services.

• Cost of risk for 2025 guided to the lower end of 20-30 basis points.

Outlook and guidance

• NII for 2025 upgraded to greater than €3.7 billion, with strong deposit and lending growth expected to carry into 2026 and 2027.

• Loan growth guidance set at 3% for 2025 and 5% CAGR for 2026 and 2027.

• Costs expected to rise ~3% in 2025; cost guidance reiterated at less than €2 billion for 2026.

• CET1 capital ratio target remains above 14% by 2027, with a buffer of at least 250bps.

• ROTE expected to be >20% for 2025; medium-term ROTE target of 15%.