Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 performance and profitability were in line with expectations, supported by strong domestic economic conditions and robust customer activity, with guidance for the year unchanged.

• Core loan book grew, notably Irish mortgages up 3.5% annualized; deposits remained stable at €103.2bn; Wealth AUM at €54.5bn with €0.5bn net inflows.

• Asset quality remains robust, with NPE ratio at 2.5%, near historical lows.

• Wealth and insurance assets under management were stable, supported by net inflows despite volatile markets.

• The business model is positioned to manage global trade uncertainties, supporting a positive outlook to 2027.

Financial highlights

• Net capital generation of 50 basis points in Q1; strong net organic capital generation of 250-270bps expected for 2025.

• Fully loaded CET1 ratio at 15.9% (up from 14.6% at Dec 2024), supported by Basel IV benefit and organic capital generation.

• Net interest income down 8% year-over-year, but 2025 NII expected to exceed €3.25bn.

• Mortgage book grew 3.5% annualized in Q1; Irish mortgage market share of new lending at 37%.

• Sustainable Finance lending reached €15bn, meeting end-2025 target ahead of schedule.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 GDP growth forecast at 3.5–3.6%, employment growth at 1.8%, and cumulative GDP over three years expected above 10%.

• NII trajectory underpinned by loan and deposit growth, and structural hedge benefits.

• Distribution policy unchanged: progressive DPS and annual return of surplus capital.

• Adjusted RoTE of ~15% expected; impairment charge expected to be low to mid 20bps, subject to no material change in economic conditions.

• Business income projected to be ~5% higher vs 2024; operating expenses ~3% higher.