Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strong momentum in Irish loans, deposits, and wealth assets under management, with disciplined cost control and high capital generation supporting balance sheet growth and shareholder returns.

• Share buyback of €590m completed, reducing share count by 12% since 2022, and €3 billion returned to shareholders since 2022, representing 26% of market cap.

• Positive outlook reiterated into 2026 and 2027, with ROTE on track to exceed 17% by 2027 and a refreshed strategy to be presented in Q1 next year.

• Irish loans and everyday banking deposits increased at an annualized rate of 5%, with a 41% market share in new mortgages and record wealth AUM of €58 billion.

• Interim dividend of 25 cents per share to be paid.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income (NII) guidance for FY25 upgraded to over €3.3bn, with expectations of high €3.3bn in 2026 and mid-€3.5bn in 2027, assuming ECB at 2%.

• Total business income up 5% year-over-year; operating expenses up 3% year-over-year, cost-to-income ratio at 49%.

• CET1 ratio at 16.2% at end-September 2025, with organic capital generation of 185bps year-to-date.

• Wealth assets under management reached €58.3bn, with net inflows of €1.6bn and 9% annualized growth.

• Group deposits at €105.5bn, up €2.4bn from December 2024; net lending at €82.2bn.

Outlook and guidance

• Positive outlook reaffirmed to 2027, targeting return on tangible equity above 17%.

• Loan and deposit CAGR expected at 3%-4%, AUM CAGR at 7%-8%, and cost base maintained around €2 billion.

• Organic capital generation guidance of 250–270bps in 2026 and 2027, excluding a 35bps impact from UK motor finance.

• Operating expenses to grow by approximately 3% vs 2024; levies and regulatory charges expected at €130m.

• Strategy refresh and updated targets beyond 2027 to be shared in Q1 next year.