Blue Bird (BLBD) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved near-record adjusted EBITDA and margin in Q1 FY2025, with $45.8M–$46M adjusted EBITDA (14.6% margin), just below last year's record, and surpassed or met guidance on all key metrics despite fewer working days and lower EV mix.

• Maintained full-year guidance and beat Q1 guidance for the eighth consecutive quarter, reflecting strong operational execution and robust demand.

• Backlog remains strong at 4,400–4,700 units (about six months of production), with a record 1,000 EVs in backlog, up 42%+ year-over-year.

• Announced CEO transition: Phil Horlock stepping down, John Wyskiel to become CEO.

• Improved plant operational performance and ongoing investments in people, processes, and facilities.

Financial highlights

• Q1 revenue was $313.9M–$314M, nearly flat year-over-year, with 2,130 buses sold.

• Adjusted EBITDA of $45.8M–$46M (14.6% margin), down slightly year-over-year; adjusted net income was $30.6M–$31M; adjusted diluted EPS of $0.92, up $0.01.

• Adjusted free cash flow was $21.8M–$22M, a $23M+ increase year-over-year; operating cash flow of $26.4M.

• Gross margin was 19.2%, down 0.8 points year-over-year due to labor cost increases and product mix.

• Liquidity at quarter-end was $279.4M–$280M, with $136.1M in cash and reduced debt by $40M year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2025 revenue guidance maintained at $1.4B–$1.5B; adjusted EBITDA guidance at $200M (14%), with a range of $185M–$215M (13.5%–14.5%).

• Targeting 9,250 units for the year, including 1,000 EVs (up 42%+ year-over-year).

• Free cash flow guidance of $40M–$60M, including $50M CapEx for new plant expansion.

• Medium- and long-term outlook: 14%–15%+ margin, up to 10,000–12,000 units, $1.6B–$2B revenue, $225M–$300M+ EBITDA.

• Record profit outlook for FY2025 and beyond, driven by strong ICE and EV demand.