Cameco (CCJ) 35th BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference summary

Market dynamics and demand outlook

• Uranium has no substitute and is procured by utilities well in advance, making the spot market largely irrelevant for real demand.

• The uncovered requirements wedge, representing uncontracted future demand, is at its largest ever, signaling significant upcoming long-term contracting needs.

• Utilities have consistently contracted below replacement rate since 2012, drawing down inventories and increasing future uncovered demand.

• Supply estimates are overstated due to capacity not running at full potential, disruptions, and delays, while demand is understated, creating a bullish outlook for prices.

• Current uranium prices are historically high even before replacement rate demand returns, with market-related contracts indicating three-digit pricing.

Pricing trends and contracting behavior

• Utilities are signing contracts with floors in the mid-$70s and ceilings above $150, with midpoints near $120, reflecting expectations of a supply-demand gap.

• The market is moving away from lower price points, and higher prices are needed to incentivize new supply and investment.

• Utilities often delay contracting, believing they can avoid peak prices, but recent government initiatives and rumors of large sovereign contracts have accelerated activity.

• 2026 has started with strong uranium contracting activity, pushing term prices and contract floors and ceilings higher.

Strategic projects and supply chain developments

• A binding term sheet with the U.S. government aims to support construction of 10 large nuclear plants by 2030, with procurement of long lead items already underway.

• Key long lead items include reactor pressure vessels, steam generators, coolant pumps, control modules, and fuel, with plans to order for 8–10 reactors simultaneously.

• The project has created urgency among utilities globally to secure supply chain positions, driving a contagion effect in AP1000 reactor adoption.