Cameco (CCJ) TD Securities 9th Annual Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Next Generation Nuclear Roundtable summary

Market dynamics and demand outlook

• Nuclear fuel cycle demand is supported by strong tailwinds from climate, energy, and national security concerns, but 2024 long-term contracting volumes remain below replacement levels.

• Utilities are focusing on downstream services like enrichment and conversion before uranium, explaining the lag in uranium contracting despite strong fundamentals.

• Volatility in the spot market and uncertainty around Russian material bans are causing fuel buyers to pause, but this is seen as normal market behavior.

• Any uncontracted demand in 2024 is expected to accumulate, increasing future contracting activity and supporting strong price formation.

Pricing and contracting strategy

• Market-related contract floors are in the low $70s, with escalated ceilings reaching $130–$135, signaling expectations for higher uranium prices.

• The company maintains discipline, stepping back from contracting when spot prices fall, waiting for terms that reflect future market strength.

• As an incumbent with strategic assets in safe jurisdictions, it leads market terms and conditions, leveraging its position for favorable contracts.

Production and expansion plans

• Expansion of McArthur River from 18 to 25 million pounds is under evaluation, but will only proceed when quality demand is secured through long-term contracts.

• Current supply discipline is maintained; no expansion or Tier Two asset restart will occur until all pre-expansion Tier One production is contracted.

• Brownfield expansion offers 30% potential production growth with lower capital intensity, leveraging existing infrastructure for rapid response to demand.