Carrier Global (CARR) JPMorgan Industrials Conference 2026 summary

Strategic positioning and portfolio evolution

• Focused portfolio aligned with secular trends: electrification, energy efficiency, digitalization, and data center/cold chain growth.

• Commercial HVAC and aftermarket segments have delivered double-digit growth for five consecutive years, with data centers as a key driver.

• Product innovation includes integrated heat pumps, dual fuel rooftop units, and advanced digital thermostats.

• Expansion of all-electric refrigeration units in Asia and scaling of digital/aftermarket capabilities to drive margin and share gains.

• Guidance for sales, profit, and adjusted EPS reaffirmed, with strong outlook for 2026.

Data center and chiller market dynamics

• Data center orders surged 400% in Q4, with continued strong backlog and share gains due to expanded product portfolio and technical capabilities.

• Shift in chiller demand from water-cooled to air-cooled, especially in Europe and hotter climates, with exponential capacity expansion in North America.

• Majority of $1.5 billion data center revenue is from chillers, with controls (BMS) as a growing differentiator.

• Liquid cooling revenue expected to be under $100 million in 2026, with focus on organic development and selective M&A.

• Strategic partnerships and investments in two-phase cooling technology, with ongoing product launches and system-level integration.

Regional and segment performance

• Middle East exposure is minimal, with logistics rerouted to avoid Suez Canal disruptions.

• Residential and light commercial volumes expected down 20% in 1H, up 10% in 2H due to destocking, with field inventory managed at 2018 levels.

• Ductless market share in the U.S. has grown to high teens, leveraging global technology and new product introductions.

• European heat pump sales strong, with new mid-tier Viessmann product targeting subsidy-sensitive markets; boiler sales down, but overall tracking to plan.

• Light commercial and transport refrigeration segments performing slightly better than expected in 1Q, with strong container business offsetting truck/trailer pressures.