Carrier Global (CARR) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 sales were $21.75 billion, with organic sales down 1% due to residential and light commercial declines, partially offset by double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket, and data center sales doubling to ~$1 billion.

• Adjusted operating profit was $3.3 billion, up 7% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS was $2.59, up 1% year-over-year.

• Over $3.7 billion was returned to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, with a continued focus on high-return investments and a strong balance sheet.

• Q4 orders increased over 15%, with record commercial service agreement orders up more than 80%.

• Data center business is expected to reach $1.5 billion in revenue in 2026, with sales projected to rise by ~50%.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 sales were $4.84 billion, down 6% year-over-year; full-year sales were $21.75 billion, down 3%.

• Adjusted Q4 operating profit was $455 million, down 33% year-over-year; full-year adjusted operating margin was 15.1%.

• Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.34, down 37% year-over-year; full-year adjusted EPS was $2.59, up 1%.

• Free cash flow for 2025 was $2.1 billion; Q4 free cash flow was about $900 million.

• Net debt at year-end 2025 was $10.3 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 sales are projected at ~$22 billion, with organic growth expected to be flat to low mid-single digits, including a $350 million headwind from the Riello exit.

• Adjusted operating profit guidance is ~$3.4 billion, with adjusted EPS of ~$2.80, up high single digits versus 2025.

• Free cash flow expected at ~$2 billion, with $1.5 billion in planned share repurchases.

• Double-digit growth anticipated in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket, with continued residential and light commercial weakness.

• Data center sales in 2026 are expected to increase by ~50%.