CF Industries (CF) Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference 2025 summary

Market dynamics and supply-demand trends

• 2025 saw significant supply constraints due to geopolitical events, weather disruptions, and high gas costs, leading to elevated fertilizer prices, especially for urea and ammonia.

• Tariff changes and import disruptions further tightened supply, but by year-end, the market moderated with prices easing and inventories remaining low.

• China’s unexpected export activity and India’s consistent demand contributed to a balanced yet still tight global market heading into 2026.

• Inventory levels at both retail and producer levels are low, with only 30%-50% of spring needs currently bought, compared to a typical 70%.

• Unplanned supply disruptions were higher than average in 2025, with ongoing challenges in regions like Trinidad, Europe, and Brazil, but some normalization is expected in 2026.

Farmer economics and crop trends

• Farmer revenues were challenged in 2025 compared to strong years in 2022-2023, but crop insurance and good yields in key states supported cash flow.

• Corn remains the favored crop for 2026 due to strong demand from feed and regulated ethanol markets, despite a projected drop from 98 to 92-93 million acres.

• The reduction in corn acreage is expected to be a minor speed bump for nitrogen demand, with some land shifting to wheat or soybeans, impacting product mix.

• Fall ammonia application was strong but limited by weather, indicating healthy demand for spring 2026.

Regional and global market insights

• Russian fertilizer exports remain robust due to lack of sanctions, while Black Sea exports are constrained by conflict.

• China is expected to maintain export levels around 4 million tons, with potential for a larger export window in 2026.

• India’s nitrogen demand surprised to the upside, with consistent large tenders and continued growth expected.

• North African producers, especially Morocco, are expanding MAP production and investing in low-carbon ammonia, opening new market opportunities.