CF Industries (CF) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net earnings for Q1 2026 were $615 million, or $3.98 per diluted share, up from $312 million ($1.85/share) in Q1 2025, reflecting a $170 million litigation settlement gain and strong operational execution.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached $983 million, up from $644 million year-over-year, supported by high capacity utilization and robust safety performance.

• Maintained nearly 100% ammonia capacity utilization, outperforming North American peers and ensuring robust product availability despite the ongoing Yazoo City Complex outage.

• Gross margin improved to $746 million (37.6% of sales), with average selling prices up 28% to $424/ton, offsetting higher natural gas costs and lower sales volumes.

• Launched low-carbon UAN collaboration with PepsiCo and advanced Blue Point JV for low-carbon ammonia production.

Financial highlights

• Net sales rose to $1.99 billion from $1.66 billion, driven by higher average selling prices across all segments.

• Trailing twelve months net cash from operations was $2.7 billion; free cash flow was $1.7 billion, with a 51% free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate.

• Cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end were $2.04 billion, including $254 million from the Blue Point JV.

• Capital expenditures for Q1 2026 were $223 million, with $65 million attributable to Blue Point JV; full-year 2026 CapEx projected at $1.3 billion consolidated.

• Returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in the last twelve months via share repurchases and dividends.

Outlook and guidance

• Global nitrogen supply-demand balance expected to remain tight through 2027 due to geopolitical conflicts, LNG disruptions, and export restrictions.

• Management expects full-year 2026 ammonia production of ~9.5 million tons due to Yazoo City outage.

• Capital expenditures projected at $1.3 billion for 2026, with $950 million attributable to the company and $600 million for Blue Point JV.

• U.S. corn plantings projected at 95 million acres for 2026, supporting domestic nitrogen demand; India expected to increase urea imports to 10–12 million metric tons.

• Ongoing decarbonization projects and Blue Point facility expected to drive long-term growth and low-carbon ammonia production.