CF Industries (CF) Q2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2026 was $2.18 billion, with Q2 adjusted EBITDA at $1.2 billion, reflecting strong operational performance, robust pricing, and a $170 million litigation settlement gain in a tight global nitrogen market.

• Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $1.34 billion for H1 2026 and $727 million for Q2 2026, driven by higher selling prices, insurance recoveries, and operational excellence.

• Safety performance remained outstanding, with a trailing 12-month incident rate of 0.16 per 200,000 hours worked and 98% ammonia capacity utilization.

• Strategic initiatives advanced, including all permits received for Blue Point construction (to begin August 2026) and progress on Yazoo City complex upgrades, expected to resume operations in H1 2027.

• Returned $1.3 billion to shareholders over the last 12 months, including $958 million in share repurchases and $314 million in dividends, with a 20% dividend increase.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2026 net sales were $2.22 billion, up from $1.89 billion in Q2 2025; gross margin improved to 51.5% from 39.9%.

• Net earnings for H1 2026 were $1.34 billion ($8.71 per diluted share); Q2 net earnings were $727 million ($4.73 per diluted share).

• LTM cash from operations totaled $3.0 billion; free cash flow was $1.8 billion, with a 50% conversion rate.

• Capital expenditures for H1 2026 were $494 million, up 31% year-over-year.

• Returned $302 million to shareholders in Q2 2026 via share repurchases and dividends.

Outlook and guidance

• Capital expenditures for 2026 projected at $1.3 billion, with $950 million attributable to the company and $400–600 million allocated to Blue Point.

• Baseline mid-cycle EBITDA expectation raised to ~$2.9 billion and free cash flow to $1.7 billion, with upside from decarbonization and Blue Point projects.

• Yazoo City Complex expected to resume operations in H1 2027; 2026 gross ammonia production forecast at ~9.5 million tons.

• Global nitrogen market expected to remain tight into 2027 and structurally tighten through the decade, with continued European curtailments.

• By 2030, strategic initiatives are expected to lift mid-cycle EBITDA to ~$3.3 billion, excluding any geopolitical premium.