Conifex Timber (CFF) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved Q1 2025 net income of $600,000 ($0.02/share), reversing prior losses and joining a select group of profitable public SPF producers in Western Canada.

• Q1 EBITDA reached $4.9 million, up from negative $2.1 million in Q4 2024 and negative $0.5 million in Q1 2024, driven by a successful transition to a two-shift sawmill operation and improved log supply.

• Revenue rose to $44.6 million, up 44% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.

• Benefited from low-cost winter log supply and higher electricity prices in Q1, supporting strong EBITDA margins.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 net income: $600,000, or just under $0.02 per fully diluted share.

• Q1 EBITDA: $4.9 million, translating to $129 (CAD) or $90 (USD) per 1,000 board feet.

• Lumber revenue was $31.3 million, up 47% from Q4 2024 but down 6% from Q1 2024.

• Expensed $2.8 million in softwood lumber duties at a 14.4% rate; cumulative duties held in trust total $40.3 million USD.

• Book value per share exceeds $2, significantly above recent trading prices of $0.30–$0.40.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 EBITDA per 1,000 board feet expected to match or exceed major competitors, assuming no new tariffs and a ramp-up in duty rates to 34.45% in H2 2025.

• Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EBITDA projected in the low double digits, based on production of 170–180 million board feet and price assumptions of $528–$548 per 1,000 board feet.

• North American lumber markets expected to remain volatile and uncertain for the rest of 2025.

• Q2 EBITDA expected to be positive but significantly lower due to power plant maintenance and reduced sawmill utilization.

• Plans to sustain two-shift operations through 2025, supported by steady power generation cash flow.