Conifex Timber (CFF) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 EBITDA was negative CAD 16.5 million, including a one-time non-cash charge of CAD 12 million for duty deposit underpayment on 2023 U.S. lumber exports.

• Reported a net loss of $16.6 million ($0.41 per share) for Q3 2025, compared to a net loss of $8.3 million in Q2 2025 and $3.8 million in Q3 2024.

• Lumber production increased 9% sequentially and 22% year-over-year, but operating rates remained at 64% of capacity due to supply chain challenges.

• Revenues from lumber products decreased 4% sequentially but rose 38% year-over-year, driven by higher sales realizations and exchange rates.

• Excluding the one-time item, regular Q3 EBITDA was negative just over CAD 4.5 million, with a CAD 1.2 million inventory write-down.

Financial highlights

• Q3 duty expenses were CAD 3.3 million, or CAD 83 per 1,000 bd ft, as more lumber was shipped to non-U.S. markets.

• Sales for Q3 2025 were $26.4 million for lumber, $4.9 million for by-products, and $6.8 million for bioenergy.

• Countervailing and anti-dumping duty deposits expensed were $15.3 million, up sharply from $2.0 million in Q2 2025.

• Cost of goods sold increased 19% sequentially, with a $1.2 million non-cash inventory write-down.

• Q4 duty and tariff expenses per 1,000 bd ft are expected to double compared to the first half of the year.

Outlook and guidance

• Anticipates further production curtailments in the industry due to unaffordable cash operating losses.

• Expects supply-demand balance to shift in favor of SPF producers, supporting higher lumber prices in the future.

• North American lumber markets expected to remain volatile with continued price and demand uncertainty for the rest of 2025.

• Duty deposit rate increases and additional tariffs present significant ongoing challenges.

• Mid-term outlook remains structurally positive despite immediate operational headwinds.