Deutsche Post (DHL) Q2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2024 developed as expected, with gradual B2B volume recovery and no broad-based acceleration, but early signs of market improvement; H1 performance met expectations and full-year guidance is confirmed.

• Effective cost and capex control supported resilient earnings and cash flow, providing a strong base for cyclical recovery and structural growth.

• Revenue for H1 2024 was €40,890 million, nearly flat year-over-year, with negative currency effects offsetting organic and acquisition-driven growth.

• EBIT declined 20.1% to €2,662 million in H1 2024, mainly due to normalization of freight rates and higher staff costs.

• The Group maintained a solid liquidity position, with €0.5 billion centrally available and undrawn credit lines.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2024 revenue rose 2.7% year-over-year to €20,639 million, but EBIT dropped 20.2% to €1,351 million; net profit attributable to shareholders fell 23.9% to €744 million.

• Supply Chain EBIT grew 3% year-over-year to €279 million, with a 6% margin, driven by new business wins.

• DHL eCommerce saw strong B2C volume growth, maintaining a 4% EBIT margin despite ongoing investments.

• P&P division achieved 8.5% parcel revenue growth, with strong cost control supporting EBIT targets.

• Free cash flow for Q2 was €344 million, supported by €264 million lower capex outflow, offsetting EBIT reduction.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2024 EBIT guidance remains unchanged at €6.0–6.6 billion, with consensus at €6.057 billion.

• H2 2024 is expected to see EBIT acceleration driven by seasonality, cost, and yield measures, including a new Express demand surcharge effective mid-September.

• Free cash flow for 2024 is projected at around €2.75–3 billion, including €250 million for M&A.

• Guidance assumes further productivity gains, cost control, and gradual economic improvement.

• Mid-term (2026) Group EBIT guidance of €7.5–8.5 billion and cumulative FCF of €9–10 billion reaffirmed.