Equifax (EFX) Barclays 22nd Annual Global Financial Services Conference 2024 summary

Macroeconomic and Consumer Trends

• Consumer resilience remains strong due to low unemployment, with subprime consumers most affected by inflation since 2022, but no spillover to middle-income segments observed.

• Demand in auto, card, and personal loans has softened slightly due to higher rates, with further softening expected until rates decline.

• No signs of recession concerns among customers; financial institutions and fintechs remain strong.

Lending Categories and Business Mix

• Mortgage now represents under 20% of total revenue and has declined as non-mortgage segments, especially government and Workforce Solutions, have grown.

• Workforce Solutions is approaching 50% of revenue, with significant growth in government and talent solutions.

Mortgage Market Outlook and Financial Framework

• Mortgage activity is at historic lows, down 50% from normal levels due to rate shocks, but is expected to recover as rates decline.

• A recovery could add $1.1 billion in revenue, $700 million in EBITDA, and $4 per share over time, with ongoing growth even in a flat market due to pricing, product, and record additions.

• Long-term financial framework targets 7-10% organic revenue growth, 13-15% for EWS, 6-8% for USIS, and 7-9% for international.