Equifax (EFX) J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference 2024 summary

Macroeconomic and regulatory outlook

• Anticipates a positive business environment from a Republican sweep, with expectations of less regulation, lower taxes, and potential inflation control.

• Expects a regime change at the CFPB, likely resulting in a different regulatory tone.

• Tariffs and inflation are being closely monitored for their impact on interest rates and business activity.

Mortgage market trends and outlook

• Mortgage activity remains 50% below normal levels, with pent-up demand for both purchases and refinancing.

• Even in a flat mortgage market, expects strong performance and margin growth, supported by price increases and restructuring savings.

• A full mortgage market recovery could add over $1 billion in incremental revenue and $700 million+ in EBITDA.

• Direction of interest rates is more important than absolute levels for stimulating activity.

• Cash-out refinancing is expected to remain strong due to high home equity.

Non-mortgage and government business growth

• Non-mortgage businesses, especially in government, are expected to grow 13-15% long term, outpacing overall company growth.

• Government vertical is now a major driver, with a $5 billion TAM and a current $800 million run rate, growing at a 40%+ CAGR.

• Price increases in EWS/Verifier are expected to be normal in 2025, with 3-4 points of price growth built into long-term targets.