Galp Energia SGPS (GALP) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 marked strong performance across all business segments, with robust upstream and midstream contributions, high-potential discoveries in Namibia, and disciplined execution in renewables and industrial transformation.

• The co-leadership model and new executive appointments are expected to enhance collaboration and strategic delivery.

• Net debt was reduced by 14% year-over-year, with net debt to EBITDA stable at 0.4x, reflecting a strengthened financial position.

• Board proposes a 15% dividend per share increase to €0.62 and a €250m share buyback for 2025, reflecting confidence in future growth.

• Fourth quarter results showed resilience amid macro volatility, with robust Upstream and Industrial performance and stable Midstream contributions.

Financial highlights

• Full year RCA EBITDA was €3.3bn in 2024, with OCF at €2.1bn and FCF at €1.3bn, stable year-over-year despite less supportive commodity prices.

• Net capex for 2024 was €832m, including cash-in from Angola upstream divestment; economic capex mainly for Namibia and Brazil upstream projects and low-carbon initiatives.

• Distributions to shareholders totaled €0.8bn (dividends and buybacks), with cash and cash equivalents at €2.2bn at year-end 2024.

• Net income was €961m, down from €1,002m in 2023.

• Free cash flow reached €1,335m; net debt at year-end was €1.2bn, with net debt to RCA EBITDA at 0.4x.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 RCA EBITDA expected to exceed €2.5bn, with OCF above €1.6bn and net capex below €0.8bn; 2026 guidance: RCA EBITDA ~€3.3bn, OCF ~€2.6bn.

• Dividend per share to increase 15% to €0.62, with a €250m buyback planned for 2025 and 4% annual DPS growth target.

• Macro assumptions: Brent at $70-75/bbl, refining margin at $5-6/boe, EUR:USD at 1.05-1.10.

• OCF projected to grow 20% from 2024 to 2026, driven by project delivery even in a less supportive macro environment.

• Net CapEx is guided below €800 million per year, with gross CapEx around €2.3–2.4 billion for 2025–2026, slightly heavier in 2025.