Galp Energia SGPS (GALP) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong operational performance in 2025, with robust upstream production, enhanced midstream gas trading, and record-high commercial contributions, especially in Spain.

• Disciplined project execution included Bacalhau start-up, Namibia well drilling, and progress on HVO, hydrogen, and renewables projects.

• Portfolio reshaping advanced through Namibia partnership and downstream combination negotiations in Iberia.

• Maintained a solid financial position, ending with net debt at €1.3 bn and net debt to EBITDA at 0.5x.

• Key growth drivers for 2026 include Bacalhau ramp-up in Brazil, new partnerships in Namibia, and downstream portfolio discussions with Moeve.

Financial highlights

• 2025 EBITDA reached €3.0bn, with net income at €1.15bn, and net debt at €1.3bn; operating cash flow was €2.2bn, and free cash flow €1.2bn.

• RCA Net Income for 2025 was €1,154m, up 20% year-over-year; IFRS Net Income was €1,120m, up 8%.

• Net debt to EBITDA ratio stood at 0.5x by year-end 2025.

• Dividend per share was €0.64 (+4% YoY), with €250m share buyback executed.

• Commercial segment posted record EBITDA of €384m, driven by growth in convenience and improved Spanish market conditions.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 EBITDA guidance above €2.6bn, with upstream contributing over €1.5bn; OCF expected to exceed €2bn, organic capex around €1bn.

• Net capex for 2025-2026 guided below €0.8bn per year.

• Upstream production for 2026 estimated at 125,000-230,000 bbl per day, supported by infill campaigns and Bacalhau ramp-up.

• Dividend per share to increase 4% to €0.64 for 2025, with continued share buybacks subject to leverage.

• Macro assumptions for 2026: Brent ~$60/bbl, refining margin $5.5/boe, EUR:USD 1.18.