Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2024 earnings release is scheduled for July 15, with consensus estimates published July 10.

• Silent period begins July 1; analyst estimates are due by July 5.

• Q2 and Q3 typically have lower claims ratios due to seasonality, with no major flood events in Norway but increased thunderstorm and lightning-related claims.

• Recent acquisitions in Denmark (PenSam Forsikring and Sønderjysk Forsikring) completed in late 2023, adding DKK 318 million in annual insurance revenue.

• Regular dividend of NOK 8.75 per share for 2023 was paid in April/Q2 2024.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Acquisitions in Denmark have been integrated, contributing to portfolio growth.

• Q2 and Q3 usually see lower claims ratios; no significant claims impact from weather events this quarter.

• May was warm and dry, June was wet with typical cloudbursts and thunderstorms, but no major claims impact.

Profitability and margins

• Normalized large losses for 2024 are expected at NOK 476 million per quarter, NOK 1.9 billion for the year (undiscounted).

• Claims inflation for private motor in Norway is estimated at 7%, expected to decline to 4% over 12–18 months; property claims inflation at 5–7%.

• Price increases and higher deductibles are being implemented to offset claims inflation and improve profitability.