Gjensidige Forsikring (GJF) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Profit before tax for Q3 2024 reached NOK 2.25 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by insurance service result, pension business, and investment returns.

• Insurance revenue grew by 11.7%, with strong momentum in private and commercial segments across Norway, Denmark, and Sweden.

• Underlying profitability was pressured by higher claims costs in Norway, especially in property and motor insurance, despite strong revenue growth.

• Annualized return on equity was 23.5%, supported by investment returns, pension business, and high customer retention.

• Combined ratio increased to 83.9% from 87.4% in Q3 2023, reflecting higher loss ratios.

Financial highlights

• General Insurance service result was NOK 1.59 billion, up year-over-year even after adjusting for one-off expenses.

• Investment returns totaled NOK 1.307 billion, with positive results across most asset classes except private equity.

• Gross written premiums increased across all segments, with Private up 16.1%, Commercial up 12.2%, and Sweden up 5.4%.

• Profit from discontinued Baltic operations was NOK 32 million, with the sale expected to close by early 2026.

• Cost ratio improved to 11.8%, with efficiency measures and revenue growth contributing.

Outlook and guidance

• Combined ratio target for 2024 will not be met due to high claims, but targets for 2025 and 2026 are maintained.

• Ongoing significant price and deductible increases in property and motor insurance to improve profitability.

• Claims inflation estimate for the next 12–18 months revised down to 4%-6% from 5%-7%.

• Return on equity target >22% for 2024–2025 and >24% for 2026; combined ratio target <84% for 2024–2025 and <82% for 2026.

• Organic growth expected to align with nominal GDP growth in Nordic markets.