Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 3Q 2025 revenue grew 20% YoY and net income rose 12% YoY, with underlying growth (excluding smartphones, regulatory/tax changes, and base rate hike) at 23% and 21% respectively.

• Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech platforms all delivered double-digit growth, with Marketplace revenue outpacing GMV due to strong advertising, delivery, and e-Grocery.

• Smartphone GMV recovery is delayed to 2026 due to iPhone supply shortages and new registration requirements.

• Major product innovations launched, including Pay by Palm (Kaspi Alaqan), new advertising services, and Kaspi AI Assistant for merchants.

• $100 million ADS buyback program to commence in November 2025, reflecting confidence in future performance.

Financial highlights

• 3Q 2025 consolidated revenue (excl. Türkiye) reached KZT797B (+20% YoY); net income KZT307B (+12% YoY).

• Payments TPV up 18% YoY in 3Q and 21% in 9M; revenue up 10%/14% and net income up 12%/17% in 3Q/9M.

• Marketplace GMV up 12% YoY in 3Q, 15% in 9M; excluding smartphones, GMV up 20%/21%; take rate at all-time high 10.3%.

• Fintech revenue up 24%/21% YoY in 3Q/9M; net income up 15%/10% YoY; TFV up 16% YoY in 3Q.

• Hepsiburada (Türkiye) GMV up 15% YoY in 3Q; revenue up 22% YoY, but EBITDA down 74% YoY due to investments.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 net income growth in Kazakhstan expected at 10-12% YoY due to smartphone supply disruption and high base rate.

• Underlying net income growth (excluding external factors) expected at 18-20% YoY, in line with prior guidance.

• Marketplace growth expected to normalize in 2026 as smartphone supply recovers.

• $100M ADS buyback to commence in November 2025; future capital returns to balance buybacks, dividends, and growth investments.