Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net income grew 10% for FY 2025, with underlying profit up 18% YoY, despite headwinds such as smartphone sales declines, tax changes, and high interest rates.

• Revenue grew 19% for FY 2025, with underlying revenue up 21%, and strong consumer engagement at 77 monthly transactions per active user.

• Proposed quarterly dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, reflecting robust cash generation and expected sustainability through 2026.

• Continued investment in long-term growth, innovation (notably pay-by-palm technology), and expansion in Türkiye, including Hepsiburada acquisition.

• Hepsiburada in Türkiye showed accelerating order and consumer growth, with engaged consumers up 29% YoY in 4Q 2025.

Financial highlights

• FY 2025 revenue up 19% YoY to KZT 3.1 trillion; net income up 10% YoY to KZT 1.2 trillion.

• Payments TPV grew 19% YoY to KZT 44.2 trillion; Marketplace GMV up 19% YoY, e-Commerce GMV up 16% (27% ex-smartphones), e-Grocery GMV up 53%.

• Marketplace purchases up 83% YoY; Fintech TFV up 13% YoY, revenue up 20%, net income up 9%.

• Hepsiburada GMV up 13% YoY in 4Q 2025, revenue up 13% for FY 2025, with engaged consumers up 29%.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached KZT 1.56 trillion in FY 2025, up from KZT 1.3 trillion in FY 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance includes Kazakhstan and Türkiye, with Marketplace GMV, TPV, and TFV expected to grow around 20%.

• Adjusted EBITDA guidance set at KZT 1.6 trillion for 2025, targeting 5% growth.

• Dividend of KZT 850 per share expected to be sustainable throughout 2026.

• No reduction in interest rates assumed in guidance; higher taxes and reserve requirements factored in.

• Hepsiburada to be managed to Adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the near term.