Kion Group (KGX) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 is expected to reflect typical seasonality, with sequentially weaker performance compared to Q2 but year-over-year growth in several areas due to a low prior-year base.

• Order intake remains strong, especially in EMEA and APAC, with new truck business outpacing service growth for the first time in years.

• Group revenue is anticipated to be marginally higher both sequentially and year-over-year, while adjusted EBIT is likely to decline due to higher long-term incentive expenses.

• Net income could be around 30% higher than the prior year and prior quarter, supported by a tax gain from a German corporate tax rate cut.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• ITS order intake in units is up year-over-year, with a sequential mid-teens percentage decline typical for Q3.

• Order intake in value terms increased less than units, as new truck business grew faster than service.

• SCS order intake shows year-over-year growth, but future quarters are expected below €1 billion.

• Group order intake is likely higher year-over-year, close to Q2 2024 levels, but down sequentially due to seasonality.

• Revenue in ITS is expected to be marginally below the prior year, while SCS revenue may increase both year-over-year and sequentially.

Profitability and margins

• ITS adjusted EBIT margin is expected to decline substantially year-over-year due to lower factory utilization and reduced pricing from 2024 orders.

• Group adjusted EBIT is likely to decline both sequentially and year-over-year, mainly due to higher long-term incentive expenses.

• SCS adjusted EBIT is expected to increase strongly year-over-year, though at a lower growth rate than the previous quarter.

• ITS margins are expected to be lower than Q2, with only mild changes, reflecting continued margin pressure.