Marvell Technology (MRVL) Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2024 summary

AI and custom compute business outlook

• AI revenue guidance increased from $400M in FY24 to $1.5B in FY25, with expectations to exceed this and reach $2.5B in FY26.

• Strong momentum in both custom silicon and optics, with sequential quarterly growth in optics expected throughout the year.

• Custom compute TAM projected to reach $40B, with a long-term market share target of 20%.

• Custom processors expected to grow from 16% to 25% of the accelerated compute market by 2028, with upside potential if external workloads materialize.

• Decision-making for new projects considers financial metrics, risk, value delivery, and geopolitical factors, with a focus on North American customers.

Competitive positioning and technology roadmap

• Competitive differentiation comes from integrated capabilities across design, packaging, manufacturing, and supplier relationships.

• Market expected to consolidate around a few large, highly integrated players as TAM grows.

• Strong visibility into major custom compute opportunities, with a robust pipeline and industry-leading roadmap.

• Focused on execution and maintaining a best-in-class technology roadmap for accelerated computing.

Interconnect and optical business

• Interconnect TAM expected to grow at a 27% CAGR, with flat market share off a high base.

• Investment and innovation continue across PAM, optical DSP, DCI, AECs, and PCIe retimers, leveraging core technologies for new markets.

• Connectivity and IO have become critical differentiators in data center architecture.

• Pluggable optics expected to dominate revenue in the near term, but investments continue in emerging technologies like silicon photonics and CPO.