Marvell Technology (MRVL) J.P. Morgan CES Fireside Chat summary

Market outlook and growth drivers

• Data center CapEx by hyperscalers and CSPs is expected to grow 50–55% in 2026, with strong momentum extending into 2027 and detailed planning already underway for 2028.

• Bookings and backlog remain at record levels, supporting robust growth projections for fiscal 2027 and 2028.

• Data center business has tripled since 2023, driven by investments in R&D and strategic acquisitions.

• Revenue is forecasted to grow over 40% year-over-year, with custom and optics businesses outperforming CapEx growth.

• Custom business is expected to double in fiscal 2028, supported by strong ramps in XPU attached products and a diversified program pipeline.

Networking and product leadership

• Investments in scale-up networking, including acquisitions of Celestial and XConn, position the company to offer comprehensive rack-scale solutions.

• Transition from copper to optical interconnects is underway, with photonic chiplet integration and a full roadmap across UALink and ESUN standards.

• XConn acquisition brings core PCIe and CXL switching capabilities, filling out the portfolio and accelerating roadmap execution.

• Multi-hundred-million-dollar revenue expected from AEC and retimer products in fiscal 2027, with further growth anticipated as the transition to PAM technology accelerates.

• Scale-out Ethernet switching business is ramping, with Teralynx 10 and upcoming 100T products driving revenue to $500 million+ and expanding the customer base.

Custom ASIC and XPU business

• Over 20 custom XPU and XPU-attached chip programs are in the pipeline, with strong demand and purchase orders secured through 2026.

• Custom XPUs are highly programmable, enabling flexible AI model deployment and supporting rapid growth in AI infrastructure.

• Embedded SRAM technology offers significant area and power advantages, with a 2nm SRAM platform differentiating XPU designs.

• Supply chain has been retooled for long-term strategic partnerships, ensuring access to critical components and capacity through 2030.

• Confident outlook for continued growth, with proactive supply planning and strong relationships with suppliers.