Methanex (MX) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record safety performance in 2024, with strong operational execution across global assets.

• Q4 2024 net income attributable to shareholders was $45M, up from $31M in Q3; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $224M from $216M sequentially.

• Full-year 2024 delivered over 6 million tons in produced sales, $764 million adjusted EBITDA, and $252 million adjusted net income.

• Production in Q4 2024 reached 1,868kmt, a significant increase from 1,347kmt in Q3, driven by higher output in Chile, New Zealand, Geismar, and Egypt.

• Completed financing for the OCI Global methanol business acquisition, including a $650M term loan and $600M bond issuance.

Financial highlights

• Q4 average realized price: $370/ton, up $14 from Q3; produced sales: ~1.5 million tons.

• Q4 2024 revenue was $949M, up from $935M in Q3; adjusted net income for Q4 was $84M ($1.24/share).

• Full year 2024 adjusted net income was $252M ($3.72/share), up from $153M ($2.25/share) in 2023.

• Ended Q4 with $892M in cash and access to a $600M undrawn credit facility.

• Repaid $300M bond in Q4; issued $600M bond and secured $650M term loan for OCI acquisition.

Outlook and guidance

• Expect global methanol demand in 2025 to grow at a rate similar to 2024, led by traditional and energy applications.

• 2025 equity production guidance: ~7.5 million tons, factoring in turnarounds and gas availability.

• Q1 2025 average realized price forecasted at $395–$405/ton, with significantly higher adjusted EBITDA expected.

• New Zealand 2025 production expected at 500–700kmt, Chile at 1.3–1.4M tonnes, both dependent on gas availability.

• Plan to repay $550–$600 million in debt over 18 months post-OCI acquisition, assuming $350/ton realized price.